Tag: covid vaccine australia

Mixed signals on Covid vaccine timeline, effectiveness

Australia, Health, Science, USA

Over in the United States, Fuhrer Trump is maintaining that a Covid-19 vaccine is in the offing. Or to use his word, a vaccine will be available “momentarily.”

Trump made the dubious assertion Monday after leaving the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he was being treated for coronavirus. He has since recovered and is now claiming that his infection was a “blessing from God.”

Experts in the US have been unequivocal in contradicting the president’s vaccine timeline. For example, Dr Paul Pottinger, a professor at the University of Washington School of Medicine, told USA Today that a widely available vaccine is “many, many months” away.

“Remember, there’s always that delay between when we know something is safe and effective and when it is then available to be generally deployed,” he explained. “But, there will not be a safe, generally effective, generally deployable vaccine any moment, I’m very confident of that.”

Australian officials appear to be in agreement with that assessment. The new Budget papers state that it is “very unlikely” that a Covid vaccine will be available to the Australian public by next summer.

The best case scenario, according to the papers, would see a vaccine distributed to Australians beginning July 1 2021.

It’s a far cry from what Canberra told us just last month, which was that a percentage of the population could be vaccinated by January thanks to early access to Oxford’s AstraZeneca vaccine. The government has earmarked $1.8 billion to secure 84 million doses of Covid vaccines when they become available. It said it expects to have 3.8 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine by February.

As I wrote previously, the AstraZeneca trial has been suspended twice after two participants came down with alarming neurological symptoms. It has yet to be resumed in the US.

Speaking to ABC, Australian Medical Association President Omar Khorshid raised doubts about how effective the vaccine will be once its approved.

“The most likely outcome is that the vaccine is partially effective, limited in the number of people who develop a response or it’s only effective for a short duration.”

It’s worth noting that, according to World Health Organisation Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, there is “hope” that a vaccine will be ready before the end of the year.

Australia records lowest Covid-19 infection rate in months

Australia

Australia’s draconian lockdown measures appear to be working. There were a total of 16 new coronavirus infections and two new deaths Monday, the lowest since mid June. In Victoria, which saw a record 725 new cases in one day last month, there were 11 cases.

“This is not just a good day. This is a great day,” Victorian premier Daniel Andrews said. “We are seeing these numbers come down. This strategy is working.”

But Andrews went on to state that now is not the time to ease the harsh restrictions, including nightly curfews. So it looks like we’ll have to keep simulating social relations using chatbots in Australia for a while.

“All of us have to stay the course though, because if we were to open up right now, these numbers are still too high and, as has been noted many, many times, as recently as in the media reporting today, if you were to open up today you won’t see the impacts of that for two to three weeks.”

For the state to partially reopen at the end of this month, the two-week average for new infections has to stay under 50. The average at the moment is 35. Barring an unexpected spike in cases, childcare facilities, warehouses, manufacturing plants and construction sites will open back up 28 September.

Beyond that, restrictions will remain in place until the two-week average dips below five and stays there.

Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate continues to climb and, as I wrote last week, our GDP continues to drop (by seven points in the June quarter alone—a new record). Businesses are struggling to remain open, particularly in the service and hospitality sectors. Not to mention the tourism industry, which has been all but destroyed.

Currently states are preparing for the increased social activity that will inevitably accompany the approaching summer months. Andrews told reporters his government is working to find a way to accommodate people’s desire to spend time together outside.

“We can close lanes. We can close streets,” he said. “We can do all sorts of creative and inventive things and have an alfresco experience, not just this summer but every summer.”

In NSW, a “Covid Safe summer plan” has been initiated, with a focus on enforcing social distancing in public areas, encouraging outdoor dining and drinking, and promoting “alternative public spaces for the community to enjoy.”

Contrary to Dr Trump’s opinion, the coronavirus will not just ‘disappear’

Politics, Science

One or more efficacious covid-19 vaccines will be necessary to defeat the current pandemic, in the view of a leading Australian virologist.

That virologist is one Professor William Rawlinson, who spoke about the need for a vaccine during an interview with Tracy Grimshaw on A Current Affair. He said scientists have had their noses to the grindstone all year, working round the clock to come up with a coronavirus vaccine.

“Population scientists and public health physicians and vaccine technologists have been working really since January, February this year to develop these,” Rawlinson said.

The speed with which the scientific community has progressed toward a vaccine is striking, especially considering that health experts were warning in the spring that a vaccine was likely 18 months away. Instead, it seems we’ll have one by the beginning of next year, possibly sooner.

Earlier this month it was reported that the UK government has committed to buying 340 million doses of six experimental vaccines. There is also a promising vaccine being developed by Oxford University that US President Donald Trump–who has repeatedly asserted that covid-19 will magically vanish one of these days–is reportedly considering giving an “emergency use authorization.”

A major factor allowing for this warp speed was the previous efforts to develop a vaccine for SARS, another type of coronavirus that shares characteristics with covid-19. Because SARS disappeared of its own volition, a vaccine was never completed. But valuable data was nevertheless produced during the early trials.

“That vaccine was never taken fully to a population,” Rawlinson explained. “There was some very good early information available from a number of what we call phase two studies and by the time they were planning for phase three studies there were no more cases.

“So really the reason for doing it died out which was great of course because SARS COVID-1, the original SARS disappeared. What that did allow us to have is a lot of information that then provided data that could be used for SARS COVID-2, so we actually got a bit of a head start.”

He went on to add that “it’s unlikely” that the covid-19 pandemic will go away without effectual vaccines.